| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16152 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16152 |
| The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq | |
| Luke N. Condra; Joseph H. Felter; Radha K. Iyengar; Jacob N. Shapiro | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-07-01 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A central question in intrastate conflicts is how insurgents are able to mobilize supporters to participate in violent and risky activities. A common explanation is that violence committed by counterinsurgent forces mobilizes certain segments of the population through a range of mechanisms. We study the effects of civilian casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan to quantify the effect of such casualties on subsequent insurgent violence. By comparing uniquely detailed micro-data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we can distinguish short-run 'information' and 'capacity' effects from the longer run 'propaganda' and 'revenge' effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence that local exposure to civilian casualties caused by international forces leads to increased insurgent violence over the long-run, what we term the 'revenge' effect. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 1 additional violent incident in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks and lead to increased violence over the next 6 months. There is no evidence that out-of-area events--errant air strikes for example--lead to increased violence, nor is there evidence of short run effects, thus ruling out the propaganda, information, and capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting the constraints on insurgent production of violence may be quite conflict-specific. Our results imply that minimizing harm to civilians may indeed help counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan to reduce insurgent recruitment. |
| 主题 | International Economics ; Globalization and International Relations ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Other ; Law and Economics ; Development and Growth ; Country Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16152 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573825 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luke N. Condra,Joseph H. Felter,Radha K. Iyengar,et al. The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16152.pdf（1585KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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