| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16189 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16189 |
| Evaluating Conditions in Major Chinese Housing Markets | |
| Jing Wu; Joseph Gyourko; Yongheng Deng | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-07-15 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | High and rising prices in Chinese housing markets have attracted global attention, as well as the interest of the Chinese government and its regulators. Housing markets look very risky based on the stylized facts we document. Price-to-rent ratios in Beijing and seven other large markets across the country have increased from 30% to 70% since the beginning of 2007. Current price-to-rent ratios imply very low user costs of no more than 2%-3% of house value. Very high expected capital gains appear necessary to justify such low user costs of owning. Our calculations suggest that even modest declines in expected appreciation would lead to large price declines of over 40% in markets such as Beijing, absent offsetting rent increases or other countervailing factors. Price-to-income ratios also are at their highest levels ever in Beijing and select other markets. Much of the increase in prices is occurring in land values. Using data from the local land auction market in Beijing, we are able to produce a constant quality land price index for that city. Real, constant quality land values have increased by nearly 800% since the first quarter of 2003, with half that rise occurring over the past two years. State-owned enterprises controlled by the central government have played an important role in this increase, as our analysis shows they paid 27% more than other bidders for an otherwise equivalent land parcel. |
| 主题 | Other ; Economic Systems ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics ; Real Estate |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16189 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573863 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jing Wu,Joseph Gyourko,Yongheng Deng. Evaluating Conditions in Major Chinese Housing Markets. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16189.pdf（538KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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