| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16215 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16215 |
| Managerial Miscalibration | |
| Itzhak Ben-David; John R. Graham; Campbell R. Harvey | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-07-22 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using a unique 10-year panel that includes more than 13,300 expected stock market return probability distributions, we find that executives are severely miscalibrated, producing distributions that are too narrow: realized market returns are within the executives' 80% confidence intervals only 36% of the time. We show that executives reduce the lower bound of the forecast confidence interval during times of high market uncertainty; however, ex post miscalibration is worst during periods of high uncertainty. We also find that executives who are miscalibrated about the stock market show similar miscalibration regarding their own firms' prospects. Finally, firms with miscalibrated executives seem to follow more aggressive corporate policies: investing more and using more debt financing. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Corporate Finance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16215 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/573890 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Itzhak Ben-David,John R. Graham,Campbell R. Harvey. Managerial Miscalibration. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16215.pdf（370KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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