| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16363 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16363 |
| Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight | |
| Eric M. Leeper; Alexander W. Richter; Todd B. Walker | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-09-16 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Changes in fiscal policy typically entail two kinds of lags: the legislative lag--between when legislation is proposed and when it is signed into law--and the implementation lag--from when a new fiscal law is enacted and when it takes effect. These lags imply that substantial time evolves between when news arrives about fiscal changes and when the changes actually take place--time when households and firms can adjust their behavior. We identify two types of fiscal news--government spending and changes in tax policy--and map the news processes into standard DSGE models. We identify news concerning taxes through the municipal bond market. If asset markets are efficient, the yield spread between tax-exempt municipal bonds and treasuries should be a function of the news concerning changes in tax policy. We identify news concerning government spending through the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We conclude that news concerning fiscal variables is a time-varying process that can have important qualitative and quantitative effects. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16363 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574038 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eric M. Leeper,Alexander W. Richter,Todd B. Walker. Quantitative Effects of Fiscal Foresight. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16363.pdf（383KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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