| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16461 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16461 |
| Understanding Transitory Rainfall Shocks, Economic Growth and Civil Conflict | |
| Edward Miguel; Shanker Satyanath | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-10-14 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004) use rainfall variation as an instrument to show that economic growth is negatively related to civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. In the reduced form regression they find that higher rainfall is associated with less conflict. Ciccone (2010) claims that this conclusion is 'erroneous' and argues that higher rainfall levels are actually linked to more conflict. In this paper we show that the results in Ciccone's paper are based on incorrect STATA code, outdated conflict data, a weak first stage regression and a questionable application of the GMM estimator. Leaving aside these data and econometric issues, Ciccone's surprising results do not survive obvious robustness checks. We therefore conclude that Ciccone's main claims are largely incorrect and reconfirm the original result by Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004), finding that adverse economic growth shocks, driven by falling rainfall, increases the likelihood of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. |
| 主题 | History ; Other History ; Development and Growth ; Country Studies ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16461 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574135 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Edward Miguel,Shanker Satyanath. Understanding Transitory Rainfall Shocks, Economic Growth and Civil Conflict. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16461.pdf（116KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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