| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16478 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16478 |
| Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future | |
| Joshua Aizenman; Gurnain Kaur Pasricha | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-10-21 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The end of the great moderation has profound implications on the assessment of fiscal sustainability. The pertinent issue goes beyond the obvious increase in the stock of public debt/GDP induced by the global recession, to include the neglected perspective that the vulnerabilities associated with a given public debt/GDP increase with the future volatility of key economic variables. We evaluate for a given future projected public debt/GDP, the possible distribution of the fiscal burden or the flow cost of funding debt for each OECD country, assuming that this in future decades resembles that in the past four decades. Fiscal projections may be alarmist if one jumps from the priors of great moderation to the prior of permanent high future burden. Prudent adjustment for countries exposed to heightened vulnerability may entail both short term stabilization and forward looking fiscal reforms. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; International Economics ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16478 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574152 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Joshua Aizenman,Gurnain Kaur Pasricha. Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16478.pdf（323KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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