| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16495 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16495 |
| Inflation and the Fiscal Limit | |
| Troy Davig; Eric M. Leeper; Todd B. Walker | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-10-28 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use a rational expectations framework to assess the implications of rising debt in an environment with a "fiscal limit." The fiscal limit is defined as the point where the government no longer has the ability to finance higher debt levels by increasing taxes, so either an adjustment to fiscal spending or monetary policy must occur to stabilize debt. We give households a joint probability distribution over the various policy adjustments that may occur, as well as over the timing of when the fiscal limit is hit. One policy option that stabilizes debt is a passive monetary policy, which generates a burst of inflation that devalues the existing nominal debt stock. The probability of this outcome places upward pressure on inflation expectations and poses a substantial challenge to a central bank pursuing an inflation target. The distribution of outcomes for the path of future inflation has a fat right tail, revealing that only a small set of outcomes imply dire inflationary scenarios. Avoiding these scenarios, however, requires the fiscal authority to renege on some share of future promised transfers. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16495 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574169 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Troy Davig,Eric M. Leeper,Todd B. Walker. Inflation and the Fiscal Limit. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16495.pdf（280KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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