| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16596 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16596 |
| Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models | |
| Larry E. Jones; Alice Schoonbroodt | |
| 发表日期 | 2010-12-09 |
| 出版年 | 2010 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom -- between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16596 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574271 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Larry E. Jones,Alice Schoonbroodt. Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models. 2010. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16596.pdf（390KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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