| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16705 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16705 |
| Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth | |
| David E. Bloom; David Canning; Günther Fink | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-01-18 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioral responses (including greater female labor force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labor-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries. |
| 主题 | Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Growth and Productivity |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16705 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574380 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David E. Bloom,David Canning,Günther Fink. Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16705.pdf（274KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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