| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16949 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16949 |
| How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies | |
| Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-04-14 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions from the economic effects of party control of government to the importance of complex rules in congressional committees. However, the results of event studies are notoriously sensitive to both choices made by researchers and external events. Specifically, event studies will generally produce different results depending on three interrelated things: which event window is chosen, the prior probability assigned to an event at the beginning of the event window, and the presence or absence of other events during the event window. In this paper we show how each of these may bias the results of event studies, and how prediction markets can mitigate these biases. |
| 主题 | Other ; General, Teaching ; Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Welfare and Collective Choice ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16949 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574624 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Erik Snowberg,Justin Wolfers,Eric Zitzewitz. How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16949.pdf（342KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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