| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w16951 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 16951 |
| Foresight and Information Flows | |
| Eric M. Leeper; Todd B. Walker; Shu-Chun Susan Yang | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-04-14 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | News--or foresight--about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonical theoretical models are taken as data generating processes. Both the nature of equilibria and the inferences about the effects of anticipated tax changes hinge critically on hypothesized tax information flows. Differential U.S. federal tax treatment of municipal and treasury bonds embeds news about future taxes in bond yield spreads. Including that measure of tax news in identified VARs produces substantially different inferences about the macroeconomic impacts of anticipated taxes. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w16951 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574626 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Eric M. Leeper,Todd B. Walker,Shu-Chun Susan Yang. Foresight and Information Flows. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w16951.pdf（458KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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