| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17014 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17014 |
| Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence | |
| Markus M. Mobius; Muriel Niederle; Paul Niehaus; Tanya S. Rosenblat | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-05-05 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Evidence from social psychology suggests that agents process information about their own ability in a biased manner. This evidence has motivated exciting research in behavioral economics, but has also garnered critics who point out that it is potentially consistent with standard Bayesian updating. We implement a direct experimental test. We study a large sample of 656 undergraduate students, tracking the evolution of their beliefs about their own relative performance on an IQ test as they receive noisy feedback from a known data-generating process. Our design lets us repeatedly measure the complete relevant belief distribution incentive-compatibly. We find that subjects (1) place approximately full weight on their priors, but (2) are asymmetric, over-weighting positive feedback relative to negative, and (3) conservative, updating too little in response to both positive and negative signals. These biases are substantially less pronounced in a placebo experiment where ego is not at stake. We also find that (4) a substantial portion of subjects are averse to receiving information about their ability, and that (5) less confident subjects are causally more likely to be averse. We unify these phenomena by showing that they all arise naturally in a simple model of optimally biased Bayesian information processing. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Experimental Design ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17014 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574688 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Markus M. Mobius,Muriel Niederle,Paul Niehaus,et al. Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17014.pdf（442KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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