| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17044 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17044 |
| Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession | |
| Laurence M. Ball; Sandeep Mazumder | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-05-12 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and variance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17044 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574718 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Laurence M. Ball,Sandeep Mazumder. Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17044.pdf（2593KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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