| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17092 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17092 |
| Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture | |
| Marshall Burke; John Dykema; David Lobell; Edward Miguel; Shanker Satyanath | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-05-26 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results. |
| 主题 | Development and Growth ; Development ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Agriculture ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17092 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574767 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marshall Burke,John Dykema,David Lobell,et al. Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17092.pdf（460KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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