| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17224 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17224 |
| House Price Booms and the Current Account | |
| Klaus Adam; Pei Kuang; Albert Marcet | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-07-18 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | A simple open economy asset pricing model can account for the house price and current account dynamics in the G7 over the years 2001-2008. The model features rational households, but assumes that households entertain subjective beliefs about price behavior and update these using Bayes' rule. The resulting beliefs dynamics considerably propagate economic shocks and crucially contribute to replicating the empirical evidence. Belief dynamics can temporarily delink house prices from fundamentals, so that low interest rates can fuel a house price boom. House price booms, however, are not necessarily synchronized across countries and the model is consistent with the heterogeneous response of house prices across the G7 following the reduction in real interest rates at the beginning of the millennium. The response to interest rates depends sensitively on agents' beliefs at the time of the interest rate reduction, which in turn are a function of the country specific history prior to the year 2000. According to the model, the US house price boom could have been largely avoided, if real interest rates had decreased by less after the year 2000. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17224 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574903 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Klaus Adam,Pei Kuang,Albert Marcet. House Price Booms and the Current Account. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17224.pdf（430KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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