全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w17305
来源ID	Working Paper 17305
	Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy
	Takero Doi; Takeo Hoshi; Tatsuyoshi Okimoto
发表日期	2011-08-18
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40%-47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two "regimes" using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is "active" (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is "passive" (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; National Fiscal Issues
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w17305
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/574980
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Takero Doi,Takeo Hoshi,Tatsuyoshi Okimoto. Japanese Government Debt and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy. 2011.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w17305.pdf（453KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览