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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w17351
来源IDWorking Paper 17351
Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment
Kristin J. Forbes; Francis E. Warnock
发表日期2011-08-25
出版年2011
语种英语
摘要This paper analyzes waves in international capital flows. We develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using data that differentiates activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of "surges" and "stops" (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross inflows) and "flight" and "retrenchment" (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross outflows). Our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes. Contagion, whether through trade, banking, or geography, is also associated with stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, and we find little association between capital controls and the probability of having surges or stops driven by foreign capital flows. The results provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility.
主题International Economics ; International Finance
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w17351
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575025
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Kristin J. Forbes,Francis E. Warnock. Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment. 2011.
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