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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w17351 |
来源ID | Working Paper 17351 |
Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment | |
Kristin J. Forbes; Francis E. Warnock | |
发表日期 | 2011-08-25 |
出版年 | 2011 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | This paper analyzes waves in international capital flows. We develop a new methodology for identifying episodes of extreme capital flow movements using data that differentiates activity by foreigners and domestics. We identify episodes of "surges" and "stops" (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross inflows) and "flight" and "retrenchment" (sharp increases and decreases, respectively, of gross outflows). Our approach yields fundamentally different results than the previous literature that used measures of net flows. Global factors, especially global risk, are significantly associated with extreme capital flow episodes. Contagion, whether through trade, banking, or geography, is also associated with stop and retrenchment episodes. Domestic macroeconomic characteristics are generally less important, and we find little association between capital controls and the probability of having surges or stops driven by foreign capital flows. The results provide insights for different theoretical approaches explaining crises and capital flow volatility. |
主题 | International Economics ; International Finance |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17351 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575025 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kristin J. Forbes,Francis E. Warnock. Capital Flow Waves: Surges, Stops, Flight, and Retrenchment. 2011. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w17351.pdf(683KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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