| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17377 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17377 |
| The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth | |
| Quamrul H. Ashraf; David N. Weil; Joshua Wilde | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-08-25 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17377 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575051 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Quamrul H. Ashraf,David N. Weil,Joshua Wilde. The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17377.pdf（600KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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