| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17425 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17425 |
| The Federal Reserve as an Informed Foreign Exchange Trader: 1973 - 1995 | |
| Michael D. Bordo; Owen F. Humpage; Anna J. Schwartz | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-09-15 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | If official interventions convey private information useful for price discovery in foreign-exchange markets, then they should have value as a forecast of near-term exchange-rate movements. Using a set of standard criteria, we show that approximately 60 percent of all U.S. foreign-exchange interventions between 1973 and 1995 were successful in this sense. This percentage, however, is no better than random. U.S. intervention sales and purchases of foreign exchange were incapable of forecasting dollar appreciations or depreciations. U.S. interventions, however, were associated with more moderate dollar movements in a manner consistent with leaning against the wind, but only about 22 percent of all U.S. interventions conformed to this pattern. We also found that the larger the size of an intervention, the greater was its probability of success, although some interventions were inefficiently large. Other potential characteristics of intervention, notably coordination and secrecy, did not seem to influence our success rates. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; International Finance ; History ; Financial History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17425 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575099 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael D. Bordo,Owen F. Humpage,Anna J. Schwartz. The Federal Reserve as an Informed Foreign Exchange Trader: 1973 - 1995. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17425.pdf（317KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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