| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17455 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17455 |
| Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections | |
| Charles F. Manski; John V. Pepper | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-09-22 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Researchers have long used repeated cross sectional observations of homicide rates and sanctions to examine the deterrent effect of the adoption and implementation of death penalty statutes. The empirical literature, however, has failed to achieve consensus. A fundamental problem is that the outcomes of counterfactual policies are not observable. Hence, the data alone cannot identify the deterrent effect of capital punishment. How then should research proceed? It is tempting to impose assumptions strong enough to yield a definitive finding, but strong assumptions may be inaccurate and yield flawed conclusions. Instead, we study the identifying power of relatively weak assumptions restricting variation in treatment response across places and time. The results are findings of partial identification that bound the deterrent effect of capital punishment. By successively adding stronger identifying assumptions, we seek to make transparent how assumptions shape inference. We perform empirical analysis using state-level data in the United States in 1975 and 1977. Under the weakest restrictions, there is substantial ambiguity: we cannot rule out the possibility that having a death penalty statute substantially increases or decreases homicide. This ambiguity is reduced when we impose stronger assumptions, but inferences are sensitive to the maintained restrictions. Combining the data with some assumptions implies that the death penalty increases homicide, but other assumptions imply that the death penalty deters it. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Other ; Law and Economics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17455 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575128 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Charles F. Manski,John V. Pepper. Deterrence and the Death Penalty: Partial Identification Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17455.pdf（347KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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