| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17477 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17477 |
| Sticking with What (Barely) Worked | |
| Lars Lefgren; Brennan Platt; Joseph Price | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-10-06 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex-post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct, ex-ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional football coaches. We find they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win -- even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about future success. This increased revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected, and the offensive strategy is revised even when failure is attributable to the defense. These results are consistent with our model's predictions. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Economics of Information ; Industrial Organization ; Industry Studies |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17477 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575152 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lars Lefgren,Brennan Platt,Joseph Price. Sticking with What (Barely) Worked. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17477.pdf（782KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
