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来源类型 | Working Paper |
规范类型 | 报告 |
DOI | 10.3386/w17513 |
来源ID | Working Paper 17513 |
A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances | |
Menzie D. Chinn; Barry Eichengreen; Hiro Ito | |
发表日期 | 2011-10-14 |
出版年 | 2011 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We examine whether the behavior of current account balances changed in the years preceding the global crisis of 2008-09, and assess the prospects for global imbalances in the post-crisis period. Changes in the budget balance are an important factor affecting current account balances for deficit countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. The effect of the "saving glut variables" on current account balances has been relatively stable for emerging market countries, suggesting that those factors cannot explain the bulk of their recent current account movements. We also find the 2006-08 period to constitute a structural break for emerging market countries, and to a lesser extent, for industrialized countries. We attribute the anomalous behavior of pre-crisis current account balances to stock market performance and real housing appreciation; fiscal procyclicality and the stance of monetary policy do not matter as much. Household leverage also appears to explain some of the standard model's prediction errors. Looking forward, U.S., fiscal consolidation alone cannot induce significant deficit reduction. For China, financial development might help shrink its current account surplus, but only when it is coupled with financial liberalization. These findings suggest that unless countries implement substantially more policy change, global imbalances are unlikely to disappear. |
主题 | International Economics ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17513 |
来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
引用统计 | |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575188 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Menzie D. Chinn,Barry Eichengreen,Hiro Ito. A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances. 2011. |
条目包含的文件 | ||||||
文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
w17513.pdf(591KB) | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 |
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