| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17629 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17629 |
| Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease | |
| Emily Oster; Ira Shoulson; E. Ray Dorsey | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-12-01 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use novel data to study the decision to undergo genetic testing by individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary neurological disorder that reduces healthy life expectancy to about age 50. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little financial or time cost, less than 10 percent of at-risk individuals are tested prior to the onset of symptoms. Testing rates are higher for individuals with higher ex ante risk of carrying the genetic expansion for HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their probability of having HD and make fertility, savings, labor supply, and other decisions as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave quite differently. We show that these facts are qualitatively consistent with a model of optimal expectations (Brunnermeier and Parker, 2005) and can be reconciled quantitatively in this model with reasonable parameter values. This model nests the neoclassical framework and, we argue, provides strong evidence rejecting the assumptions of that framework. Finally, we briefly develop policy implications. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17629 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575304 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emily Oster,Ira Shoulson,E. Ray Dorsey. Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17629.pdf（573KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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