全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Recessions and the Cost of Job Loss

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w17638
来源ID	Working Paper 17638
	Recessions and the Cost of Job Loss
	Steven J. Davis; Till M. von Wachter
发表日期	2011-12-01
出版年	2011
语种	英语
摘要	We develop new evidence on the cumulative earnings losses associated with job displacement, drawing on longitudinal Social Security records for U.S. workers from 1974 to 2008. In present value terms, men lose an average of 1.4 years of pre-displacement earnings if displaced in mass-layoff events that occur when the national unemployment rate is below 6 percent. They lose a staggering 2.8 years of pre-displacement earnings if displaced when the unemployment rate exceeds 8 percent. These results reflect discounting at a 5% annual rate over 20 years after displacement. We also document large cyclical movements in the incidence of job loss and job displacement and present evidence on how worker anxieties about job loss, wage cuts and job opportunities respond to contemporaneous economic conditions. Finally, we confront leading models of unemployment fluctuations with evidence on the present value earnings losses associated with job displacement. The model of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994) extended to include search on the job generates present value losses only one-fourth as large as observed losses. Moreover, present value losses in the model vary little with aggregate conditions at the time of displacement, unlike the pattern in the data.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Labor Economics ; Labor Compensation ; Unemployment and Immigration
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w17638
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575313
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Steven J. Davis,Till M. von Wachter. Recessions and the Cost of Job Loss. 2011.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	资源类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
w17638.pdf（2506KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览