| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17651 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17651 |
| Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational? | |
| Paul Beaudry; Deokwoo Nam; Jian Wang | |
| 发表日期 | 2011-12-08 |
| 出版年 | 2011 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such episodes explain macroeconomic fluctuations. We then examine the link between these identified mood shocks and subsequent developments in fundamentals using alternative identification schemes (i.e., variants of the maximum forecast error variance approach). We find that there is a very close link between the two, suggesting that agents' feelings of optimism and pessimism are at least partially rational as total factor productivity (TFP) is observed to rise 8-10 quarters after an initial bout of optimism. While this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature, we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self-fulfilling beliefs. Overall, we argue that mood swings account for over 50% of business cycle fluctuations in hours and output. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17651 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575325 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paul Beaudry,Deokwoo Nam,Jian Wang. Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational?. 2011. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17651.pdf（1780KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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