| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w17734 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 17734 |
| Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States | |
| Shuaizhang Feng; Michael Oppenheimer; Wolfram Schlenker | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-01-05 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigate the link between agricultural productivity and net migration in the United States using a county-level panel for the most recent period of 1970-2009. In rural counties of the Corn Belt, we find a statistically significant relationship between changes in net outmigration and climate-driven changes in crop yields, with an estimated semi-elasticity of about -0.17, i.e., a 1% decrease in yields leads to a 0.17% net reduction of the population through migration. This effect is primarily driven by young adults. We do not detect a response for senior citizens, nor for the general population in eastern counties outside the Corn Belt. Applying this semi-elasticity to predicted yield changes under the B2 scenario of the Hadley III model, we project that, holding other factors constant, climate change would on average induce 3.7% of the adult population (ages 15-59) to leave rural counties of the Corn Belt in the medium term (2020-2049) compared to the 1960-1989 baseline, with the possibility of a much larger migration response in the long term (2077-2099). Since there is uncertainty about future warming, we also present projections for a range of uniform climate change scenarios in temperature or precipitation. |
| 主题 | History ; Labor and Health History ; Other History ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Agriculture ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w17734 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575408 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shuaizhang Feng,Michael Oppenheimer,Wolfram Schlenker. Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Internal Migration in the United States. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w17734.pdf（1904KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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