全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): What explains high unemployment? The aggregate demand channel

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来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w17830
来源ID	Working Paper 17830
	What explains high unemployment? The aggregate demand channel
	Atif R. Mian; Amir Sufi
发表日期	2012-02-09
出版年	2012
语种	英语
摘要	A drop in aggregate demand driven by shocks to household balance sheets is responsible for a large fraction of the decline in U.S. employment from 2007 to 2009. The aggregate demand channel for unemployment predicts that employment losses in the non-tradable sector are higher in high leverage U.S. counties that were most severely impacted by the balance sheet shock, while losses in the tradable sector are distributed uniformly across all counties. We find exactly this pattern from 2007 to 2009. Alternative hypotheses for job losses based on uncertainty shocks or structural unemployment related to construction do not explain our results. Using the relation between non-tradable sector job losses and demand shocks and assuming Cobb-Douglas preferences over tradable and non-tradable goods, we quantify the effect of aggregate demand channel on total employment. Our estimates suggest that the decline in aggregate demand driven by household balance sheet shocks accounts for almost 4 million of the lost jobs from 2007 to 2009, or 65% of the lost jobs in our data.
主题	Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Monetary Policy
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w17830
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575505
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Atif R. Mian,Amir Sufi. What explains high unemployment? The aggregate demand channel. 2012.

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w17830.pdf（359KB）	智库出版物		限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览