G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w17906
来源IDWorking Paper 17906
Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models
Jon Faust; Abhishek Gupta
发表日期2012-03-08
出版年2012
语种英语
摘要While dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models for monetary policy analysis have come a long way, there is considerable difference of opinion over the role these models should play in the policy process. The paper develops three main points about assessing the value of these models. First, we document that DSGE models continue to have aspects of crude approximation and omission. This motivates the need for tools to reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the models--both to direct development efforts and to inform how best to use the current flawed models. Second, posterior predictive analysis provides a useful and economical tool for finding and communicating strengths and weaknesses. In particular, we adapt a form of discrepancy analysis as proposed by Gelman, et al. (1996). Third, we provide a nonstandard defense of posterior predictive analysis in the DSGE context against long-standing objections. We use the iconic Smets-Wouters model for illustrative purposes, showing a number of heretofore unrecognized properties that may be important from a policymaking perspective.
主题Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Macroeconomic Models ; Business Cycles
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w17906
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575582
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Jon Faust,Abhishek Gupta. Posterior Predictive Analysis for Evaluating DSGE Models. 2012.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
w17906.pdf(737KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Jon Faust]的文章
[Abhishek Gupta]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Jon Faust]的文章
[Abhishek Gupta]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Jon Faust]的文章
[Abhishek Gupta]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: w17906.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
此文件暂不支持浏览

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。