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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w17964
来源IDWorking Paper 17964
Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate
Melissa Schettini Kearney; Phillip B. Levine
发表日期2012-03-29
出版年2012
语种英语
摘要We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, giving particular attention to the sizable decline that has occurred since 1991. Our primary focus is on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens; in fact, all else equal, a rising share of Hispanic teens would have led to an increase in teen childbearing. A temporary increase in the share of teens aged 18-19 can account for nearly half of the transitory increase in teen childbearing around 1991. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid. However, the combined effect of these two policies is estimated to account for only 12 percent of the observed decline in teen childbearing from 1991-2010. Third, weak labor market conditions, as measured by the unemployment rate, do appear to lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 28 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began.
主题Health, Education, and Welfare ; Education ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w17964
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575640
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Melissa Schettini Kearney,Phillip B. Levine. Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate. 2012.
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