| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18035 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18035 |
| The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk | |
| Fatih Guvenen; Serdar Ozkan; Jae Song | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-05-03 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper studies the cyclical nature of individual income risk using a confidential dataset from the U.S. Social Security Administration, which contains (uncapped) earnings histories for millions of individuals. The base sample is a nationally representative panel containing 10 percent of all U.S. males from 1978 to 2010. We use these data to decompose individual income growth during recessions into "between-group" and "within-group" components. We begin with the behavior of within-group shocks. Contrary to past research, we do not find the variance of idiosyncratic income shocks to be countercyclical. Instead, it is the left-skewness of shocks that is strongly countercyclical. That is, during recessions, the upper end of the shock distribution collapses--large upward income movements become less likely--whereas the bottom end expands--large drops in income become more likely. Thus, while the dispersion of shocks does not increase, shocks become more left skewed and, hence, risky during recessions. Second, to study between-group differences, we group individuals based on several observable characteristics at the time a recession hits. One of these characteristics--the average income of an individual at the beginning of a business cycle episode--proves to be an especially good predictor of fortunes during a recession: prime-age workers that enter a recession with high average earnings suffer substantially less compared with those who enter with low average earnings (which is not the case during expansions). Finally, we find that the cyclical nature of income risk is dramatically different for the top 1 percent compared with all other individuals--even relative to those in the top 2 to 5 percent. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles ; Money and Interest Rates ; Labor Economics ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Labor Compensation |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18035 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575711 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fatih Guvenen,Serdar Ozkan,Jae Song. The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18035.pdf（1175KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
