| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18144 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18144 |
| A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening | |
| Martin L. Weitzman | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-06-15 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Suppose that there is a probability density function for how bad things might get, but that the overall rate at which this probability density function slims down to approach zero in the tail is uncertain. The paper shows how a basic precautionary principle of tail fattening could then apply. The worse is the contemplated damage, the more should a decision maker consider the bad tail to be among the relatively fatter-tailed possibilities. A rough numerical example is applied to the uncertain tail distribution of climate sensitivity. |
| 主题 | Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18144 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575820 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martin L. Weitzman. A Precautionary Tale of Uncertain Tail Fattening. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18144.pdf（229KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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