| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18157 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18157 |
| The Ramsey Discounting Formula for a Hidden-State Stochastic Growth Process | |
| Martin L. Weitzman | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-06-15 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | The long term discount rate is critically dependent upon projections of future growth rates that are fuzzier in proportion to the remoteness of the time horizon. This paper models such increasing fuzziness as an evolving hidden-state stochastic process. The underlying trend growth rate is an unobservable random walk hidden by noisy transitory shocks and recoverable only as a probability distribution via Bayesian updating. A simple expression is derived for the time-declining Ramsey discount rate. The components of this hidden-state Ramsey discounting formula are then analyzed, followed by a few remarks about possible implications and applications. |
| 主题 | Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18157 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575832 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Martin L. Weitzman. The Ramsey Discounting Formula for a Hidden-State Stochastic Growth Process. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18157.pdf（141KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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