| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18219 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18219 |
| Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-Insurance against Sudden Stop | |
| Guillermo A. Calvo; Alejandro Izquierdo; Rudy Loo-Kung | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-07-13 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper addresses the issue of the optimal stock of international reserves in terms of a statistical model in which reserves affect both the probability of a Sudden Stop-as well as associated output costs-by reducing the balance-sheet effects of liability dollarization. Optimal reserves are derived under the assumption that central bankers conservatively choose reserves by balancing the expected cost of a Sudden Stop against the opportunity cost of holding reserves. Results are obtained without using calibration to match observed reserves levels, providing no a priori reason for our concept of optimal reserves to be in line with observed holdings. Remarkably, however, observed reserves on the eve of the global financial crisis were-on average-not distant from optimal reserves as derived in this model, indicating that reserve over-accumulation in Emerging Markets was not obvious. However, heterogeneity prevailed across regions: from a precautionary standpoint, Latin America was closest to model-based optimal levels, while reserves in Eastern Europe lay below optimal levels, and those in Asia lay above. Nonetheless, there are other motives for reserve accumulation: we find that differences between observed reserves and precautionary-motive optimal reserves are partly explained by the perceived presence of a lender of last resort, or characteristics such as being a large oil producer. However, to a first approximation, there is no clear evidence supporting the so-called neo-mercantilist motive for reserve accumulation. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Money and Interest Rates ; Monetary Policy ; International Economics ; Trade ; International Finance ; International Macroeconomics |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18219 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575895 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guillermo A. Calvo,Alejandro Izquierdo,Rudy Loo-Kung. Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-Insurance against Sudden Stop. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18219.pdf（332KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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