| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18222 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18222 |
| Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting | |
| Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-07-13 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by economic forecasters. We show that prediction markets have a number of attractive features: they quickly incorporate new information, are largely efficient, and impervious to manipulation. Moreover, markets generally exhibit lower statistical errors than professional forecasters and polls. Finally, we show how markets can be used to both uncover the economic model behind forecasts, as well as test existing economic models. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18222 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575898 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Erik Snowberg,Justin Wolfers,Eric Zitzewitz. Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18222.pdf（581KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
