| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18230 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18230 |
| Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change | |
| Derek M. Lemoine; Christian P. Traeger | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-07-13 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We model welfare-maximizing policy in an infinite-horizon setting when the probability of a tipping point, the welfare change due to a tipping point, and knowledge about a tipping point's trigger all depend on the policy path. Analytic results demonstrate how optimal policy depends on the ability to affect both the probability of a tipping point and also welfare in a post-threshold world. Simulations with a numerical climate-economy model show that possible tipping points in the climate system increase the optimal near-term carbon tax by up to 45% in base case specifications. The resulting policy paths lower peak warming by up to 0.5°C compared to a model without possible tipping points. Different types of tipping points have qualitatively different effects on policy, demonstrating the importance of explicitly modeling tipping points' effects on system dynamics. Aversion to ambiguity in the threshold's distribution can amplify or dampen the effect of tipping points on optimal policy, but in our numerical model, ambiguity aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Mathematical Tools ; Economics of Information ; Behavioral Economics ; Environmental and Resource Economics ; Environment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18230 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575906 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Derek M. Lemoine,Christian P. Traeger. Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18230.pdf（987KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
