| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18245 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18245 |
| Really Uncertain Business Cycles | |
| Nicholas Bloom; Max Floetotto; Nir Jaimovich; Itay Saporta-Eksten; Stephen J. Terry | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-07-19 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First, we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical, rising sharply during recessions, particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second, we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. We find that reasonably calibrated uncertainty shocks can explain drops and rebounds in GDP of around 3%. Moreover, we show that increased uncertainty alters the relative impact of government policies, making them initially less effective and then subsequently more effective. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18245 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/575921 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nicholas Bloom,Max Floetotto,Nir Jaimovich,et al. Really Uncertain Business Cycles. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18245.pdf（1095KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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