| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18407 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18407 |
| Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States | |
| Samuel H. Preston; Andrew Stokes; Neil K. Mehta; Bochen Cao | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-09-21 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We project the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these projections. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts were age 25. To these distributions we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Projections of the effects of smoking are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that both changes in smoking and in obesity are expected to have large effects on mortality. For males, the reductions in smoking have larger effects than the rise in obesity throughout the projection period. By 2040, male life expectancy at age 40 is expected to have gained 0.92 years from the combined effects. Among women, however, the two sets of effects largely offset one another throughout the projection period, with a small gain of 0.26 years expected by 2040. |
| 主题 | Health, Education, and Welfare ; Health ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18407 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576083 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Samuel H. Preston,Andrew Stokes,Neil K. Mehta,et al. Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18407.pdf（796KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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