| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18449 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18449 |
| Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition | |
| Peter Arcidiacono; Patrick Bayer; Jason R. Blevins; Paul B. Ellickson | |
| 发表日期 | 2012-10-11 |
| 出版年 | 2012 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper develops a dynamic model of retail competition and uses it to study the impact of the expansion of a new national competitor on the structure of urban markets. In order to accommodate substantial heterogeneity (both observed and unobserved) across agents and markets, the paper first develops a general framework for estimating and solving dynamic discrete choice models in continuous time that is computationally light and readily applicable to dynamic games. In the proposed framework, players face a standard dynamic discrete choice problem at decision times that occur stochastically. The resulting stochastic-sequential structure naturally admits the use of CCP methods for estimation and makes it possible to compute counterfactual simulations for relatively high-dimensional games. The model and method are applied to the retail grocery industry, into which Wal-Mart began rapidly expanding in the early 1990s, eventually attaining a dominant position. We find that Wal-Mart’s expansion into groceries came mostly at the expense of the large incumbent supermarket chains, rather than the single-store outlets that bore the brunt of its earlier conquest of the broader general merchandise sector. Instead, we find that independent grocers actually thrive when Wal-Mart enters, leading to an overall reduction in market concentration. These competitive effects are strongest in larger markets and those into which Wal-Mart expanded most rapidly, suggesting a diminishing role of scale and a greater emphasis on differentiation in this previously mature industry. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Industrial Organization ; Market Structure and Firm Performance |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18449 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576124 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Peter Arcidiacono,Patrick Bayer,Jason R. Blevins,et al. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition. 2012. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18449.pdf（843KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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