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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w18507
来源IDWorking Paper 18507
Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration
Greg Kaplan; Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
发表日期2012-11-01
出版年2012
语种英语
摘要We analyze the secular decline in interstate migration in the United States between 1991 and 2011. Gross flows of people across states are about 10 times larger than net flows, yet have declined by around 50 percent over the past 20 years. We argue that the fall in migration is due to a decline in the geographic specificity of returns to occupations, together with an increase in workers' ability to learn about other locations before moving there, through information technology and inexpensive travel. These explanations find support in micro data on the distribution of earnings and occupations across space and on rates of repeat migration. Other explanations, including compositional changes, regional changes, and the rise in real incomes, do not fit the data. We develop a model to formalize the geographic-specificity and information mechanisms and show that a calibrated version is consistent with cross-sectional and time-series patterns of migration, occupations, and incomes. Our mechanisms can explain at least one-third and possibly all of the decline in gross migration since 1991.
主题Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Labor Supply and Demand ; Unemployment and Immigration ; Regional and Urban Economics ; Regional Economics
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w18507
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576181
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GB/T 7714
Greg Kaplan,Sam Schulhofer-Wohl. Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration. 2012.
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