| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18673 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18673 |
| Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap | |
| Barry Eichengreen; Donghyun Park; Kwanho Shin | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-01-04 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the incidence and correlates of growth slowdowns in fast-growing middle-income countries, extending the analysis of an earlier paper (Eichengreen, Park and Shin 2012). We continue to find dispersion in the per capita income at which slowdowns occur. But in contrast to our earlier analysis which pointed to the existence of a single mode at which slowdowns occur in the neighborhood of $15,000-$16,000 2005 purchasing power parity dollars, new data point to two modes, one in the $10,000-$11,000 range and another at $15,000-$16,0000. A number of countries appear to have experienced two slowdowns, consistent with the existence of multiple modes. We conclude that high growth in middle-income countries may decelerate in steps rather than at a single point in time. This implies that a larger group of countries is at risk of a growth slowdown and that middle-income countries may find themselves slowing down at lower income levels than implied by our earlier estimates. We also find that slowdowns are less likely in countries where the population has a relatively high level of secondary and tertiary education and where high-technology products account for a relatively large share of exports, consistent with our earlier emphasis of the importance of moving up the technology ladder in order to avoid the middle-income trap. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; International Economics ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18673 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576347 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barry Eichengreen,Donghyun Park,Kwanho Shin. Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18673.pdf（610KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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