| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18706 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18706 |
| The Golden Dilemma | |
| Claude B. Erb; Campbell R. Harvey | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-01-17 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While gold objects have existed for thousands of years, gold's role in diversified portfolios is not well understood. We critically examine popular stories such as 'gold is an inflation hedge'. We show that gold may be an effective hedge if the investment horizon is measured in centuries. Over practical investment horizons, gold is an unreliable inflation hedge. We also explore valuation. The real price of gold is currently high compared to history. In the past, when the real price of gold was above average, subsequent real gold returns have been below average consistent with mean reversion. On the demand side, we focus on the official gold holdings of many countries. If prominent emerging markets increase their gold holdings to average per capita or per GDP holdings of developed countries, the real price of gold may rise even further from today's elevated levels. In the end, investors face a golden dilemma: 1) embrace a view that 'those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it' and the purchasing power of gold is likely to revert to its mean or 2) embrace a view that the emergence of new markets represent a structural change and 'this time is different'. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Monetary Policy ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets ; Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing ; Financial Institutions ; History ; Financial History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18706 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576380 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Claude B. Erb,Campbell R. Harvey. The Golden Dilemma. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18706.pdf（2120KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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