| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18751 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18751 |
| Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different? | |
| Kathryn M.E. Dominguez; Matthew D. Shapiro | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-02-01 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; History ; Macroeconomic History |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18751 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576425 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kathryn M.E. Dominguez,Matthew D. Shapiro. Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18751.pdf（57KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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