| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18779 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18779 |
| Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers | |
| Olivier J. Blanchard; Daniel Leigh | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-02-08 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; National Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18779 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576453 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olivier J. Blanchard,Daniel Leigh. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w18779.pdf（284KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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