G2TT
来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w18779
来源IDWorking Paper 18779
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
Olivier J. Blanchard; Daniel Leigh
发表日期2013-02-08
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
主题Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy ; Public Economics ; Taxation ; National Fiscal Issues
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w18779
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
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条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576453
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GB/T 7714
Olivier J. Blanchard,Daniel Leigh. Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers. 2013.
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