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来源类型Working Paper
规范类型报告
DOI10.3386/w18929
来源IDWorking Paper 18929
Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics
Geoffrey Heal; Antony Millner
发表日期2013-03-28
出版年2013
语种英语
摘要Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing, but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes, or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified and expressed in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty or ambiguity rather than risk in the classical sense, rendering the classical expected utility framework of limited value. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change and resolve these into various components, commenting on their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that are appropriate in the absence of quantitative probabilistic information, including non-probabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and discuss their application in climate change economics.
主题Microeconomics ; Economics of Information
URLhttps://www.nber.org/papers/w18929
来源智库National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576604
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Geoffrey Heal,Antony Millner. Uncertainty and Decision in Climate Change Economics. 2013.
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