| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18986 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18986 |
| How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign | |
| Chad Kendall; Tommaso Nannicini; Francesco Trebbi | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-04-25 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Rational voters update their subjective beliefs about candidates' attributes with the arrival of information, and subsequently base their votes on these beliefs. Information accrual is, however, endogenous to voters' types and difficult to identify in observational studies. In a large scale randomized trial conducted during an actual mayoral campaign in Italy, we expose different areas of the polity to controlled informational treatments about the valence and ideology of the incumbent through verifiable informative messages sent by the incumbent reelection campaign. Our treatments affect both actual vote shares at the precinct level and vote declarations at the individual level. We explicitly investigate the process of belief updating by comparing the elicited priors and posteriors of voters, finding heterogeneous responses to information. Based on the elicited beliefs, we are able to structurally assess the relative weights voters place upon a candidate's valence and ideology. We find that both valence and ideological messages affect the first and second moments of the belief distribution, but only campaigning on valence brings more votes to the incumbent. With respect to ideology, cross-learning occurs, as voters who receive information about the incumbent also update their beliefs about the opponent. Finally, we illustrate how to perform counterfactual campaigns based upon the structural model. |
| 主题 | Public Economics ; Subnational Fiscal Issues |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18986 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576660 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chad Kendall,Tommaso Nannicini,Francesco Trebbi. How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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