| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w18989 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 18989 |
| Firms' Optimism and Pessimism | |
| Rüdiger Bachmann; Steffen Elstner | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-04-25 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Are firms' expectations systematically too optimistic or too pessimistic? Does it matter? We use micro data from the West German manufacturing subset of the IFO Business Climate Survey to infer quarterly production changes at the firm level and combine them with production expectations over a quarterly horizon in the same survey to construct series of quantitative firm-specific expectation errors. We find that depending on the details of the empirical strategy at least 6 percent and at most 34 percent of firms systematically over- or underpredict their one-quarter-ahead upcoming production. In a simple neoclassical heterogeneous-firm model these expectational biases lead to factor misallocations that cause welfare losses which in the worst case are comparable to conventional estimates of the welfare costs of business cycles fluctuations. In more conservative calibrations the welfare losses are even smaller. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Economics of Information ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w18989 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576663 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rüdiger Bachmann,Steffen Elstner. Firms' Optimism and Pessimism. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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