全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun's law

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w19047
来源ID	Working Paper 19047
	Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun's law
	Menzie D. Chinn; Laurent Ferrara; Valérie Mignon
发表日期	2013-05-16
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	This paper aims at investigating the relationship between employment and GDP in the United States. We disentangle trend and cyclical employment components by estimating a non-linear Okun's law based on a smooth transition error-correction model that simultaneously accounts for long-term relationships between growth and employment and short-run instability over the business cycle. Our findings based on out-of-sample conditional forecasts show that, since the exit of the 2008-09 recession, US employment is on average around 1% below the level implied by the long run output-employment relationship, meaning that about 1.2 million of the trend employment loss cannot be attributed to the identified cyclical factors.
主题	Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment ; Business Cycles
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w19047
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576722
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Menzie D. Chinn,Laurent Ferrara,Valérie Mignon. Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun's law. 2013.