全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Updating Beliefs with Ambiguous Evidence: Implications for Polarization

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w19114
来源ID	Working Paper 19114
	Updating Beliefs with Ambiguous Evidence: Implications for Polarization
	Roland G. Fryer, Jr.; Philipp Harms; Matthew O. Jackson
发表日期	2013-06-06
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	We introduce and analyze a model in which agents observe sequences of signals about the state of the world, some of which are ambiguous and open to interpretation. Instead of using Bayes' rule on the whole sequence, our decision makers use Bayes' rule in an iterative way: first to interpret each signal and then to form a posterior on the whole sequence of interpreted signals. This technique is computationally efficient, but loses some information since only the interpretation of the signals is retained and not the full signal. We show that such rules are optimal if agents sufficiently discount the future; while if they are very patient then a time-varying random interpretation rule becomes optimal. One of our main contributions is showing that the model provides a formal foundation for why agents who observe exactly the same stream of information can end up becoming increasingly polarized in their posteriors.
主题	Microeconomics ; Behavioral Economics ; Labor Economics
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w19114
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576789
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Roland G. Fryer, Jr.,Philipp Harms,Matthew O. Jackson. Updating Beliefs with Ambiguous Evidence: Implications for Polarization. 2013.