全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): Intergenerational Transfer, Human Capital and Long-term Growth in China under the One Child Policy

G2TT

来源类型	Working Paper
规范类型	报告
DOI	10.3386/w19160
来源ID	Working Paper 19160
	Intergenerational Transfer, Human Capital and Long-term Growth in China under the One Child Policy
	Xi Zhu; John Whalley; Xiliang Zhao
发表日期	2013-06-28
出版年	2013
语种	英语
摘要	We argue that the demographic changes caused by the one child policy (OCP) may not harm China's long-term growth. This attributes to the higher human capital induced by the intergenerational transfer arrangement under China's poor-functioning formal social security system. Parents raise their children and depend on them for support when they reach an advanced age. The decrease in the number of children prompted by the OCP resulted in parents investing more in their children's educations to ensure retirement consumption. In addition, decreased childcare costs strengthen educational investment through an income effect. Using a calibrated model, a benchmark with the OCP is compared to three counterfactual experiments without the OCP. The output under the OCP is expected to be about 4 percent higher than it would be without the OCP in 2025 under moderate estimates. The output gain comes from a greatly increased educational investment driven by fewer children (11.4 years of schooling rather than 8.1). Our model sheds new light on the prospects of China's long-term growth by emphasizing the OCP's growth enhancing role through human capital formation under the intergenerational transfer arrangement.
主题	Labor Economics ; Demography and Aging ; Development and Growth ; Development ; Country Studies
URL	https://www.nber.org/papers/w19160
来源智库	National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)
引用统计
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576835
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xi Zhu,John Whalley,Xiliang Zhao. Intergenerational Transfer, Human Capital and Long-term Growth in China under the One Child Policy. 2013.