| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19209 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19209 |
| Learning to Forecast the Hard Way\u2014Evidence from German Reunification | |
| Thomas P. Triebs; Justin Tumlinson | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-07-11 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Do firms learn to forecast future business conditions after structural changes to the economy? How long does it take? We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment, where Eastern are treated with ignorance about the distribution of market states, to test Bayesian learning. As predicted, Eastern firms initially forecast future business conditions worse than Western ones, but this gap gradually closes over a decade following Reunification. The slow convergence stems from differences in forward expectations rather than realized market conditions. These results warn of costly and drawn out adjustments to regime changes, as the trade wars, COVID19 and Brexit. |
| 主题 | Microeconomics ; Households and Firms ; Economics of Information ; International Economics ; Trade ; Industrial Organization ; Firm Behavior ; History ; Financial History ; Other History ; Other ; Culture |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19209 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576882 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thomas P. Triebs,Justin Tumlinson. Learning to Forecast the Hard Way\u2014Evidence from German Reunification. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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